Demographic situation in the Northwestern Federal District
Economic and geographical position of the Northwestern Federal District
The Northwestern Federal District is an important link in the system of state and municipal administration of the Russian Federation. It includes 11 subjects of the federation of various status with a population of 13.5 million people and a total area of 1.7 million square meters. km., including 2 republics within the Russian Federation, 1 city of federal significance, 1 autonomous district, 7 regions, one of which is a special economic zone and is separated from the main territory of the country. Adjacent to the district is the Arctic sector, which belongs to the sphere of interests of the Russian Federation, with an area of 1.5 million square meters. km.
There are more than 200 municipal districts and urban districts and about 1.7 thousand municipalities of the settlement level on the territory of the Okrug. In the district, the functions of state administration are carried out by the district structures of a number of federal executive bodies. The plenipotentiary representative of the President of the Russian Federation, the Association for Economic Interaction of the Subjects of the North-West carry out their activities within the framework of the district.
The Northwestern Federal District occupies 9.9% of the territory of Russia, it accounts for 9.6% of the country’s population .
According to the All-Russian population census of 2010, 13,584 thousand people live in the Northwestern Federal District, 83% of whom live in cities. Over the past 20 years, the population has decreased by 11.3%, in Russia over the same period the number of inhabitants has decreased by 3.2%. At the same time, in the Murmansk region, the population decreased by 30%, in the Komi Republic by 25%, in St. Petersburg by 8%. Population decline in the Northwest began in 1992 (Fig. 1). The average dynamics for 1990-2010 was 99.4% per year. In Russia as a whole, population decline began in 1996, with an average growth rate over the same period of 99.8%. In 2010, both in the country as a whole and in the NWFD, the situation was reversed, and for the first time in this century, an increase in the number of inhabitants was recorded (100.7% in the Russian Federation and 100.9% in the NWFD).
Rice. 1. Population dynamics in Russia and the Northwestern Federal District, in % to 1990
Based on the data: [2 – 4].
Thus, the North-West region was one of the first to enter the depopulation zone. Prior to this, most of its subjects were characterized by an increase in the total population. Although the growth rate of the total population tended to decrease, and in some subjects, for example, in the Vologda region in the period from 1951 to 1970, and in the Pskov region in the period from 1951 to 1980. there was even a decline in the population (for the period from 1951 to 1990, for example, in the Pskov region, the total population decreased by almost 200 thousand people).
According to the forecast of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, in the period up to 2016. in the North-West region, a significant reduction in the population, and, consequently, in labor potential, is expected, which will lead to an increase in the shortage of labor, an increase in the demographic burden on the working population. The key demographic problems that determine the formation of the labor potential of the North-West region are the exceptionally low birth rate and the reduced proportion of children and adolescents in the population; high rates of infant mortality and mortality of the working-age population; the migration outflow of the population continues. Therefore, from an economic point of view, migration is a real source of filling the deficit of the economically active population, both now and in the future. From a demographic point of view, the concentration of migrants in the old-timed subjects of the region contributes to a partial smoothing of the negative demographic trends that have been observed in them for many years .
Sex and age structure of the population
The age composition of the population of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as Russia as a whole, is characterized by a significant gender disproportion. Thus, according to the All-Russian population census, there are 1,167 women per 1,000 men in the Okrug. At the same time, this preponderance is more significant in the city than in the countryside – 1183 and 1091, respectively.
The numerical excess of women over men in the population is observed from the age of 29 and increases with age. This unfavorable ratio has developed due to the continuing high level of premature mortality of men.
According to international criteria, the population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 years and over in the entire population exceeds 7%. At present, almost every eighth Russian, i.e. 12.9% of the country’s residents are aged 65 or over. In the Northwestern Federal District, 13.3% of residents are over 65 years old.
Population aging is a very unfavorable process that can lead to negative consequences for the economy: slow down economic growth, affect the reduction of human capital and, consequently, lead to a drop in productivity.
The process of demographic aging of the population is much more characteristic of women. In the structure of the population of the above ages, women make up more than two thirds (68.7%).
The average age of the country’s inhabitants is 38.9 years (in 2010), men respectively 36.2 years, women – 41.2 years. In the Northwestern Federal District, these figures are somewhat higher – the average age is 39.8 years (36.7 for men, 42.4 for women) .
An analysis of the distribution of the population by age groups shows that the NWFD has one of the lowest proportions of the population below working age – 14.5% (on this indicator, we are ahead of only the Central Federal District). A similar position is taken by the North-West in terms of the proportion of people older than working age. All this indicates a high demographic burden in the region (Fig. 2).
Rice. 2. Distribution of the population by main age groups (as of January 1, 2010), in %
Based on data: 
The age and sex pyramid of the population clearly displays all the existing disproportions (Fig. 3).
The modern age-sex pyramid of the population of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as Russia as a whole, was formed under the influence of several groups of factors:
1. Evolutionary changes as a result of a decrease in mortality and fertility;
2. Perturbative impacts (economic, political upheavals, military operations).
If the sex and age structure of the population changed only under the influence of natural factors, then the contour of the pyramid would change gradually (the lower part would become narrower, and the upper, on the contrary, wider. However, there is a strong deformation in the age and sex pyramid of the population, torn edges and asymmetry of the male The extremely significant decline in the lower part of the district’s population pyramid is the result of the “second echo” of World War II and a sharp drop in the birth rate in the 1990s.
Rice . 3. Sex and age structure of the population of the NWFD as of January 1, 2010
Based on data: